Home Archive Vol.40, No.4, 2014 The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic

The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic

M. Novac(1), NICOLETA ALICE DRĂGOESCU(1), ANDREEA STĂNCULESCU(2), LUCICA DUCA(2), DANIELA CERNEA(1)

(1)Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Department, University of Medicine and Pharmacology of Craiova, Romania, (2)Ph.D. Student in Medicine, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Romania

    Abstract: Purpose: Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of <10%. Results: The death rate was not statistically significant on burned (p> 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p <0.001 when we referred to the total body surface area, and p <0.05 when we took into account the degree burns, acute respiratory distress syndrome and age. For each index / prognostic score studied by making ROC curve when they take different values, we set a cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. Conclusions: These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns.
    Keywords: burns, mortality prediction, ICU prognosis scores

DOI 10.12865/CHSJ.40.04.04


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Volume 40 Issue 4 2014